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I'm wondering how much this applies to Vanilla...
This is a write-up by David Geary about how Ruby on Rails is at or near a "tipping point", in which it will go from a small-scale success to a huge deal.
He lists three reasons for this (which original from Malcolm Gladwell's "The Tipping Point:
1. The Law of the Few - basically, influential people take notice and begin spreading an idea
2. Context - the context of the situation. Much like with RoR, the situation in the forum world right now is that other forums are just too complex at this point. Vanilla is winning hearts because of its simplicity. Google did this, too. Is there a pattern here?
3. Stickiness - will there be a lasting impact, or is the certain idea just a fad?
I think its obvious that Vanilla is attracting influential people from all over the tech landscape (if you don't think so, see an earlier thread by me). Its also obvious that Vanilla is dead simple...infact, while the people at my forum initially were turned off by Vanilla (they are all a bunch of gamers that grew up with IPB, phpBB, vBulletin, etc), 9/10 don't do anything but rave about how cool the forum is and how easy it is to use.
Finally...is Vanilla just a fad? I don't think so. Mark is dedicated to his product and there is a community of developers and users that are very enthusiastic about it.
So at some point, Vanilla should hit its own "tipping point", where we start to see Vanilla boards used as often as your phpBB, IPB, etc, alternatives.
Hopefully.
http://jroller.com/page/dgeary?entry=tipping_rails
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