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Is the next big web crash ahead?

edited October 2005 in Vanilla 1.0 Help
I've always liked how Paul Scrivens writes, and I love his design as well. He's a pretty smart guy. His latest post got me thinking:

Boom 2.01

It started with Yahoo! acquiring Upcoming.org and then AOL acquiring Weblogs, Inc. and finally Verisign purchasing Weblogs.com. I seem to recall this type of craziness happening before and a lot of people promising themselves that they wouldn't allow it to happen again. Well I fear the bubble will be much stronger this time around and its burst will be even more damaging because many of us really did believe we learned from our mistakes the previous time.

I tend to agree with this. I think the web is getting oversaturated with Google ads and people are starting to turn a blind eye to them. Slowly advertising revenue will slow down with all the bloggers and different sites prominently displaying them everywhere.

And what about the companies? eBay spends and exorbitant amount of money on Skype, AOL spends a ridiculous amount of money on a set of about 5 good web blogs. And then the biggest player in the industry, Google, is highly overinflated in the stock market.

What happens when this all comes crashing down?

Comments

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    It seems ever so similar to the mobile phone 3G licensing. All the companies thinking it was going to be the next big thing and in the end they all overpaid for the licenses and are struggling to even make some money to start working towards breaking even.
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    I hate ads of any kind plastered all over the web. I dont understand how Googles ads are accepted. People were highly irritated with pop up ads, but I guess because Googles ads are text its ok. Ads on some bigger sites I understand, ads on free web community sites I understand, but ads that I see on peoples personally run blogs? I dont get it. Why are Google ads OK? And who, WHO clicks on ads?! Can I also ask WHO uses the spam email they just got to "r3f1n4nc3 y0ur h0m3" or for cheap 3rd world RX drugs? Sorry to stray from the topic. But I just dont get it, how they make money off that shit.
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    *nods at kraks post. Google ads dont bother me, but they also do nothing for me. As with many things on a site i just gloss past them to find what i'm actually looking for. In honesty, i think ads work much better on inexperienced web users - it seems to be a function of extended web-use that you work out how to quickly filter out what you're viewing to see what you want (you'd be amazed how many naked women i see!); wheras people who dont use it all that often tend to actually read through the page like a book (i suppose it fits with most things really..) and therefore they might get hung up on this little ads box which seems to have some interesting links in. People who take spam emails seriously (especially ones that obvious) pure amaze me.
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    and i agree with giginger too - 3g in itself is an incredible idea - i can remember walking round museums and stuff when i was tiny (probably ~10 years ago) and seeing landline video phones which were merely concept. Correct me if i'm wrong but the landline idea never actually got pulled off (presumably due to the speed of normal PSTN?) aside from full on video conferencing which utilises the net. Now theyre back again blasting it all over mobile networks and the sheer power of it is incredible - i'm yet to see a 3g call made because although it *is* becoming a little more common as the mobile networks expand their 3g cover and provisions, it's still WAY undersubscribed and i think it will remain that way for year[s] to come (atleast until the 3g phones really compete with the 2g ones). But consider the day that it becomes commonplace (as with many things; if it makes it) - people who *dont* videocall will be considered suspicious. You'll never be able to say 'i'm just in the car' when people can see youre still at home - and viewpoints will become available worldwide. I do think it'l make it eventually, but its gonna take its time getting there. And there's still a chance that something better will come out in the meantime and take its spotlight. But when its there, it'l be worrying. Big brother keeps knocking at our doors.
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    I remember that too minisweeper. It was great seeing this stuff and thinking "Oh man! That's going to be so cool!". 3G seems great but the coverage in the UK is awful and I only know one person with it. The amount of sites you can visit is severely limited so you can't even fully web browse. That's a major holdback for me. Anyway, I took the discussion well off topic here. Sorry.

    As for google ads. As others do, i just gloss past them if they're there. Also, the AdBlock extension to Firefox is priceless. I have certain sites I allow ads on purely because I like the site and I want to support it by clicking the ads a few times a day.

    Web 2.0 seems to be increasingly moving towards being more restricted. The thing that people love about the internet is it's apparent freedom. Admittedly the internet is used for the wrong type of things all the time but then so are Knives....

    Ermmm, not sure where I'm going with this.
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    isnt that why knives are being banned? Lets save the internet before they ban that too! Oh wait..theyre trying already...
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    I can't remember the last time I clicked on a Google ad. The reason why pop-ups did so well for awhile is because the common Internet user didn't know what to do about them and didn't really care. But slowly knowledge spread about how to get rid of them and how bad they were, and no one uses popups nowadays.

    I think the same will happen with Google ads. BTW, what happens to Google when their ads aren't pulling in as much money? That's all the company is based off of.
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    ugh. I hate that americanism 'off of'. Especially written. Good point though?
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    They start charging per search.
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    Well thats a surefire way to kill their business. The alternatives arent *that* bad.
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    lol mini. Dont worry, theres a lot of "euro" words/phrases us Americans cant stand either. I never thought Google was sustained by the ads. I remember when there were no Google ads (or at least not in wide spread use). Do they make more off of (haha just for you mini) the text ads, or search result placement ("sponsored links")? I dont think they would even consider charging for searches. They might as well just fire everyone and close the doors. I have heard of this Web 2.0 stuff before but I still dont know what it is. What the hell is Web 2.0? I tried to read an Oreilly page on it but ack, its too boring. Sounds like a marketing gimmick.
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    That's mostly what it is.
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    Thing is though krak, it's our language to break; not yours to bastardise :P What else does google charge for? I thought all you paid for was to have an advert somewhere? It's not really asif they have any other services they can charge for which arent being provided free by someone else.
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    MarkMark Vanilla Staff
    I don't think we're going to have another bubble-burst on the web. At least not as bad as last time. To be completely honest, I was aware that shit was blowing up the first time around, but it didn't really affect me at all. I've been consistently employed doing web work for over eight years. There are a lot of big companies with wacky ideas about how to make money out there. The web is *still* a relative newborn and we're all still trying to wrap our heads around just exactly how to make money with it. Some will succeed and some will fail. That's life. But beyond making money on the web, the web is still a fantastic source of information. Faster and easier to use than our own computer systems (have you ever noticed how it takes longer to find search results on your local computer than through google?). The web ain't going anywhere any time soon. I think people just like to get all worked up for no reason. And sadly, a lot of those people will probably lose money on the web - bubble burst or not.
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    lechlech Chicagoland
    The whole ".com" blowout was mainly a result of empty project promises and over-hiring. Bullshit buzzwords, and technology mentioned durring the time which looked promising never could be established because nobody was crazy enough to carry it out. Mainly it was also a result of over-hiring, paying people too much to do too little thusly drained the companies financially without turning over any or much profit. And now people wonder why we have out-sourcing. I still don't trust anything or anyone who uses the term "synergy". It's like one of those kill-words you use for attack dogs, anyone who says it should get their crotch ripped out.
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    Bullshit buzzwords

    Hmm. Sounds a lot like "Web 2.0" to me.

    Mainly it was also a result of over-hiring, paying people too much to do too little thusly drained the companies financially without turning over any or much profit.

    Also sounds a lot like "Web 2.0".
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    Synergy, so you dont like them new Toyotas eh? lol
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    synergy is an awesome word. Much like hullabalooza.
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    The "bursting bubble" wont affect as much people this time around, because many more now are freelancers, they have as much skill than a small web design firm back in the day of the first burst. People who work for themselfs and develop free web software are safe, because there just isn't anything that can have any effect on them. What people don't seem to remember is that even when there was a big burst there still was companies that redesigned their sites, new companies that needed web sites, and there were still all the people using web, it was just that the companies grew so large that the economy couldn't support it, their salaries were way too high. Ofcourse some big companies might feel the blow (if there is going to be anykind of burst) and some will go down, but they are the ones that didn't learn from the past. Most will just keep going.
This discussion has been closed.