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PS3: I just realized something that is going to fuck us up.
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The market is passing them by. Since the original NES they have been on a steady decline. Every single system since the NES has had less marketshare and total number of units sold.
It isn't gonna get any better with the Revolution. Those "hot third party developers" aren't gonna spend their time developing for a weaker, less popular system with a different control scheme than the main two.
Those massive handheld sales I'd recon come by a vast majority from kids. I used to work at a daycare, and probably every 1 of 4 kids had a Gameboy of some type. At this point, Nintendo is more of a toy company than anything.
The new control system, while good in concept, will be more annoying than everything. It will be the type of system that you sit down and play for 30 minutes, and after your arm is tired or waving the controller around, you'll set it down and play later. Its just tedious.
Can you imagine what it would be like using computers if we had to use sign language to input everything? Its much more efficient to move just your fingers to control a game than it is to move your entire upper body.
We'll see what Nintendo does, but I don't reckon it will be good. The 360 is already picking up more and more popularity, and if the Revolution launches near or after the PS3 it will be absolutely crushed. I could see console sales as low as 10 million this gen for the Revolution.
And the truth is, while Japan was a behemoth 10 or 20 years, ago, its not as big of a deal now. North America is a MUCH larger market and provides the most chance for profit. I'm sure that Japan will love the Revolution (or so I can only assume), but it matters little when the North American and European markets are growing and are huge.
The Revolution looks like they've gone some way to changing that. They're working for the Third Party Developers on this one. That's where they've gone wrong in the past.
I think the revolution will be a big hit, maybe not in the same way as a Playstation or Xbox but I think it will do really well and show that Nintendo haven't completely lost it.